Monte Carlo · Interactive · Free
Product Launch Simulator
Thinking of bringing a new product to market? Run hundreds of possible futures in seconds. See likely weekly and monthly revenue, your P&L, cash needs and break-even, and the factors that matter most: market forces, competitors, pricing, marketing, raw materials, labour and supplier risk.
- Step 1
Describe your product
Type, price, capacity and launch budget.
- Step 2
Set the market
Customers, competitors, pricing, costs and inflation.
- Step 3
Run the futures
Hundreds of simulations with supplier, currency and rival shocks.
- Step 4
Act on the insights
Revenue ranges, P&L, break-even and focus areas.
71%
of 400 futures profitable by week 78
₦3.2bn
Net profit ₦247.9m over 78 weeks
Week 30
Reached in 82% of futures
₦350.1m
Deepest cash dip (P90). Typical: ₦47.3m
Revenue per week
Shaded band: 80% of simulated futures (P10–P90). Line: most likely (P50). Net of channel margin.
Cumulative profit and cash position
Below zero = cash you must fund. Band shows P10–P90 of futures.
Spread of final profit
Net profit after 78 weeks across every simulated future.
Monthly P&L — fixed vs variable costs
Average across futures. Bars are costs; the line is revenue.
What moves your profit most
Change in final profit if each factor is 20% lower or higher.
Unit economics
Where each ₦2,500 sale goes, at launch prices.
- Shelf price₦2,500
- Channel margin−₦500
- Raw materials−₦900
- Labour−₦200
- Packaging, logistics & fees−₦200
- Cost of sales−₦60
- Waste allowance−₦46
- Contribution30% of net price covers fixed costs and profit₦594
- Customers won
- 209,163
- packs sold
- 1,600,302
- Demand left unserved
- 5.6%
- Accepted price (P10–P90)
- ₦2,250–₦2,787
- Cost of waste
- ₦93.8m
- Chance of ₦3.5bn revenue
- 36%
- Futures with a rival price cut
- 61%
Key areas to focus on
Strong outlook1. Watch
Key driver 1: Selling price
Price is your strongest lever. Test willingness to pay, bundles and pack sizes before launch.
2. Lever
Key driver 2: Raw-material cost
Input costs drive profit. Negotiate supply contracts, consider forward-buying and qualify a second supplier.
3. Lever
Key driver 3: Channel margin
Distributor margins cut deep. Compare direct, online and partner channels.
4. Watch
Dependency resilience
Key raw-material supplier disruptions cost about 2.0% of potential revenue. Build buffer stock or a backup provider.
5. Watch
Revenue target
36% of futures reach ₦3.5bn in revenue. Consider a staged target or stronger demand levers.
6. Watch
Expect a competitive response
In 61% of futures a rival cuts price. Plan your counter-move: loyalty, bundles or a value tier.
7. Watch
Cash runway
Have about ₦350.1m available (the deepest cash dip in 9 out of 10 futures) before revenue catches up. Typical need: ₦47.3m.
Illustrative Monte Carlo model driven by your inputs — not a forecast or financial advice.
What's inside the model
Demand that behaves like a real market
Customers arrive through marketing and word of mouth, buy again, drift away, and follow the seasons. Market growth, competitors and your price against theirs set how many you can win.
Costs that move over time
Raw materials follow inflation, random price swings and currency shocks. Wages rise each year. Fixed overheads, dependency fees, marketing and launch spend are tracked separately from variable costs.
Dependencies that can fail
Suppliers, logistics, power, packaging and payment platforms each have a chance of disruption that cuts capacity. Rivals may cut prices, and regulatory approvals can delay launch.
Answers you can act on
Every input is tested 20% up and down to rank what really moves profit. The simulator then turns the results into plain-language focus areas.
Want to test your capability to deliver the launch, too? Try the Capability Impact Simulator or book a free consultation.
Launch with a plan, not a guess.
We'll pressure-test your assumptions, build the go-to-market and supply plan, and get your team ready to deliver.